The study classifies “conflict “ second 5 levels of intensity:
1 - Latent conflict (Low intensity, Non-violent)
2 - Manifest conflict (Low intensity, Non-violent)
3 - Crisis (Medium intensity , Violent)
4 - Severe crisis (High intensity, Violent)
Violent force repeatedly used in an organized way.
5 - War (High intensity - Violent)
(these sum of factors - that often operate in conjunction, undermining the stability of states and the foundations of human security - point to a conflict syndrome, a new kind of war)
National power (74 cases)
Resources (71 cases)
Territory (53 cases)
Secession (50 cases)
Regional predominance (47 cases)
Autonomy (45 cases)
International power (38 cases)
Some global conclusions
- Compared to 2007, second the Conflict Barometer 2008, the number of conflicts remained almost the same – 344 in 2007 and 345 in 2008. 39 conflicts were fought out with the use of massive violence, 95 conflicts were conducted with sporadic use of violence (crises), and 211 non-violent conflicts were counted ( 129 manifest and 82 latent conflicts ).
- After a relatively peaceful 2007, the number of highly violent conflicts rose once more in 2008. 9 wars and 30 severe crises were counted (6 wars and 26 severe crises - a total of 32 highly violent conflicts, in 2007).
- Regarding global conflicts (low, medium and high intensity) from 1945 to 2008, the number of conflicts observed per year has risen more or less continuously. Most of the conflicts are low-intensity conflicts. A continuous and regular increase, interrupted by deescalation phases is obserbable on high-intensity conflicts.
- In 1992, after the collapse of the USSR, it was reached the all-time high(49) in high intensity conflicts. After a remarkable decrease to 30 in 2005, the number of highly violent conflicts rose again to 36 in 2006, decreased to 32 in 2007, and rose again to 39 in 2008 – the highest number since 2004.
- In recent years, the number of crises had soared to previously unknown values, peaking 113 in 2005, and then remaining on a very high level.
- More than 2/3 of the conflicts monitored in 2008 were internal conflicts (254 intrastate and 91 interstate cases). Only 8 out of 91 of the interstate conflicts were conducted with the use of violence. Intrastate conflicts represents the vast majority of violent and especially highly violent conflicts.
Other interesting conclusions:
- In this analysis, conflicts very often involve more than one item. Combinations of the 3 most frequent items were common - territory and resources, regional predominance and resources, or international power and system/ideology.
- Conflicts over national power, regional predominance, secession or autonomy, resources, and system/ideology were violent in about 50% of the cases.
- Conflicts over territory and international power were conducted without the use of violence in a large number of cases.
- About 20% (20 cases) of the conflicts concerning system/ideology were even fought out with the use of massive violence, making this item the most important one in highly violent conflicts: 20, more than half of the 39 high-intensity conflicts, were fought out over questions of system or ideology, alone or in combination with other items. The second most important items in high-intensity conflicts were national power, resources, and secession with 10 cases each.
- There are remarkable differences between the various world regions , indicating different regional patterns of conflicts. System/Ideology, the most frequent item in total, was the prevalent item in Asia and Oceania (38 cases, 1/3 of conflicts), in the Middle East and Maghreb (27 items, more than 50%), and in the Americas (24 cases, more than more than 50% of conflicts as well).
- System/Ideology item was of minor importance in Europe (12 cases), and almost unknown in Africa (6 cases). The second most frequent item on a global scale, national power, was significant in Africa (25 cases, almost half of the conflicts) and in Asia/Oceania (24 cases), as well as in the Middle East and Maghreb (15 cases). However, it was comparatively rare in the Americas (6 cases) and Europe (5 cases).
- The item ranking third in global terms, resources, was prevalent in Africa (29 cases), where many conflicts were fueled by natural resources exploited by rebel groups, and in the Americas (20 cases), but rare in Europe ( 6cases), Asia and Oceania (11 cases), and in the Middle East and Maghreb (5 cases).
- Conflicts over regional predominance were fought out primarily in Africa (18 cases) and in Asia and Oceania (22 cases). This item was unknown in Europe (zero cases) and very rare in the Middle East and Maghreb (one case). In the Americas, it was not very frequent (6 cases), but it was accounted for both high-intensity conflicts in this region.
- Conflicts over self-determination (over autonomy or secession), were prevalent in Europe (14 and 20, respectively) and common in Asia and Oceania (15 and 18), but not too frequent in Africa (both 9), and quite rare both in the Americas (3 and 1) and in the Middle East and Maghreb (4 and 2).
- Although there is rarely only one cause of dispute, ideological change (System/Ideology) represents the most common cause of conflict. In fact, these conflicts were conducted in order to change the political or economic system or ideological differences, which signifies deep socio-economic inequalities behind them.
(links between climate change and wars)
2 - states with weak political institutions are particularly vulnerable, since they find it difficult to manage the social tensions caused by climate change.
 Tapani Vaahtoranta, The wars of climate change, OSCE review 3/2007, The Finnish Institute of International Affairs